I’ve heard the Russian economy is overheating and is going to have major problems by mid 2025 (interest rates already 20+% and home mortgage rate have hit a peak at 40%). I figured that would mean that the Russian war machine would start having massive problems by the end of 2025.

But the way Russia is pushing so hard, after a Trump victory and expected US support withdrawal and pressure to negotiate, makes me think they are trying to begin negotiation on Day 1 of a Trump presidency. Which I would infer means they are in a worse position than I expected and could have massive war machine problems by mid 2025.

If Ukraine was then able to, and did continue, fighting until the end of 2025, they may start making major gains in the war against the broken Russian war machine. Putin may call a second mobilization wave to slow the Ukrainians but that may be counterproductive by causing general unrest and protestation against the war.

Revan. Star Wars Knights of the Old Republic.

Really seems like it has to be electronic interference. It happens everytime the drone gets close to the soldier.

On a potentially positive note, it seems that the Russians are running low on artillery systems (loss of ~25/day on a high casualty day compared to ~70/day months ago).

I believe euromaiden press estimates they have 21% of their total stock pile left and they field ~20% at a time. This would mean they have essentially no reserves left and field usage is now limited by production rates and refurbishment of equipment in bad shape.

It may be because they are running out of reserve Soviet equipment and are forced to rely on meat assaults to keep up the pressure.

I’ve noticed the number of artillery system destroyed per day is about half (~25-35/day) of what it was for most of the past year (~70/day).

Same with APCs, the number seems to have halved and the “vehicles and fuel tanks” number has risen to compensate. To me, that indicates the Russians are riding into battle on unarmed vehicles (motorcycles, golf carts, regular cars/trucks, etc.) and are more suseptible to becoming a casualty than earlier in the war.

If that were the case, the Russians pressure/assaults may not have increased as significantly as the casualty number increase would indicate.

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I suspect the storage facilities are close to being completed emptied of working or easily fixable pieces and all that’s left is scrap/spare part pieces.

They may be receiving, or could receive in the future, artillery pieces from allies (ex. NK) that could change their ability to keep up losses.

Regarding China, I don’t think China would militarily invade a stable Russia (not civil wared). I think it’s more likely they will economically dominate them, with the implicit threat of militarily/covert action if Russia tries and recover their economic sovereignty in those dominated regions.

This news site usually has a graph with the loss percentage of the initial total and how much of the initial total is active vs reserve.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10/12/russo-ukrainian-war-day-962-north-korean-troops-train-in-russia-for-potential-ukraine-deployment/

To answer your question, the chart shows it to be ~6,120 total artillery systems left. At a loss of 50 a day (assuming they don’t tailor down their use as they lose availability [massive assumption]), they should completely run out in about 122 days / 4 months (~ February 2025).

Obviously, that is unlikely to happen and I expect that they will tailor down their use closer to their production rate (I don’t know what their production rate is) before the end of the year, as they completely run out of any reserves.

Do you mean Hellen Keller? Anne Frank was the girl living in the attic during nazi occupation in World War II. Helen Keller was blind and deaf and, to my recollection, wasn’t able to communicate until adulthood when a teacher came along to teacher sign language.

I think they probably ment to put special equipment’s “99” under vehicles and fuel tanks. Otherwise, they would have destroyed 3% of the total destroyed special equipment.

Relevant section:

The final season of Vi and Jinx’s story will be divided into three acts, with the first debuting on November 9. The second act will be available on November 16, and the third will be available on November 23.

Internet says it is set to conclude on December 8, 2024, in Vancouver. So, after the election.

I believe she stated she is not going to make a response until after her tour finishes, to protect her fans.

Edit: Internet says the tour is set to conclude on December 8, 2024, in Vancouver (after the election).

With ferries and heavy rail over the Kerch Strait Bridge unlikely, it seems Russia is left with the new rail line being built through lower Ukraine (don’t know if its finished yet) and/or trucks across the bridge (not sure the volume it can accommodate). Seems like Crimean logistics are going to be constrained in the short term.

My recollection is that the ruble is restricted (partially/mostly?) from being traded by the Russian government. So, most of the ruble currency exchange is on the black market, which wouldn’t be what Google finance shows.

I semi recall reading something a year or so ago about the black market ruble value being half of the publicized value, so maybe what she is referencing is a recent significant drop in the black market ruble value.

I’m pretty sure the 3rd pre-war bridge was taken out (yesterday?). So, all Russia has left is the pontoon bridges (2?) and possibly one was taken out earlier today (1 left?).

To me, it seems Ukraine is trying to trap troops and equipment below the river and get a large personnel surrenders and equipment recovery.

I would add that you can swallow air to create the need to burp.

Relevant sections from the article:

… 1,158 likely U.S. voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Conducted by Data for Progress, the poll shows that Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat in the six battleground states with three months to go before the November 5 election. A slim majority of voters across the states examined feel that neither Democrats nor Republicans “have clear solutions for the biggest issues facing the country,” suggesting there’s a significant opportunity for either candidate to win over voters with a concrete policy agenda that centers the material needs of the working class.

The survey makes clear that progressive policy objectives have widespread appeal across the political spectrum. For example, the poll shows that 71% of voters in the battleground states—including 89% of Democrats, 67% of Independents and third-party voters, and 55% of Republicans—want the wealthy to pay more in taxes, a sentiment that aligns with progressive goals and contrasts with those of Trump and the GOP.

The poll also indicates broad support for raising taxes on big, profitable corporations; expanding Social Security by “making the wealthy pay the same rate as the working class”; hiking the long-stagnant federal minimum wage; and expanding Medicare to cover dental, vision, and hearing benefits.

Support for more ambitious progressive agenda items, such as Medicare for All, is less solid among Republicans and Independents, according to the new survey, but still has strong backing among the Democratic base—68% of which supports transitioning to a single-payer healthcare system.

From a tweet captured in the article:

84% want Medicare to cover dental, vision & hearing

77% want to expand Social Security

75% want a cap on rent increases

71% want to restore $300/month Child Tax Credit

70% want a $17/hour Minimum Wage

64% want to cancel Medical Debt

My recollection is you need to “talk” to each animal once a day, every day.

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