While they didn’t help, I suspect their numbers were small enough to not matter in the scheme of what happened.
The answer is likely mundane. My guess is overall turnout was lower because things didn’t feel as ‘crisis’ like as 2020. The needle for people barely aware of politics even as they vote stayed at the same place as it was in 2020: Things aren’t great, kick whoever is in office out in hopes the alternative does better. Last time they came out for Biden because Trump was at the wheel. Now they show up for Trump because the president was a democrat.
This segment of the electorate is not particularly politically aware, let alone active, and likely has little to no opinion about the broader world. The relative likelihood of them turning up at all depends on how badly things are going (less likely to show up this time compared to the unprecedented mess of 2020), and to the extent they show up they just vote against whoever is in charge that day.
However, those people are generally quiet, and so we turn our focus instead to the loudest folks proclaiming a refusal to vote for Harris.
If it was close, I would agree. It wasn’t even close by such a huge margin the more mundane factors I think are the only ones big enough to explain things.
For the politically disengaged? It is an accurate take.
In 2020, you had massive unemployment. People personally were stuck at home with nowhere they could go. Many of them saw a loved one suffer death at the hands of a pandemic, or personally get very sick. That is a direct and visceral experience of “things are bad”. They didn’t need to follow any news, study any charts, read any policy, they knew that their direct subjective experience was bad.
In 2024, things for people are largely normal, but a lot of bills are high. Grading on a curve, this is much further from a personal crisis for most folks. In fact, the grocery bills eased a bit so some people might be seeing a natural ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
The biggest discused crisis factors in forums like this are only being considered by the politically engaged, and that’s just not most people. Whether it should be or not…
Yez, but not in the way you’re thinking. People have been radicalized by misogynists on youtube and tiktok that Russia has paid for. It’s been proven for some of them, and if you think they’re the only ones, you’re living in a fantasy land.
Except gen z men voted at like a 2% more for trump in a low turnout election its like well within every margin of error that it could be decreasing support since 2020.
The significant portion of the almost 20 million Biden voters that just checked out of politics and decided since everything seemed ok, no need to vote. Thats the media outreach problem. It guarantees that republicans will regain power everytime the economy gets patched up with duct tape.
Unfortunately, I think the media has blared the things people should be caring like crazy. Problems remain:
People only internalize their personal experience, and they only care so much about what they see on the screen.
To the extent they may care, they also see a counter campaign of folks claiming otherwise, and they don’t really have a good way to casually know which viewpoint to take seriously.
I think that points to the democrats need for sneaker based messaging networks. Instead of buying huge expensive ads that nonvoters won’t watch and giving that money out to tv networks why not use the high volunteer base to buy t shirts and restaurant meal coupons then hand them out to people. stuff like that. I think there needs to be more lateral thinking here. Less emails, more tshirts.
It doesn’t matter. A vote that was not cast or cast for anyone other than Harris we warned them and warned them, and they didn’t listen.
If I ever hear someone say “Gen Z will save us” again, I’m going to have some strong words for them. Gen Z is a bunch of knuckle-dragging Neanderthals and they’ll be the death of us.
While they didn’t help, I suspect their numbers were small enough to not matter in the scheme of what happened.
The answer is likely mundane. My guess is overall turnout was lower because things didn’t feel as ‘crisis’ like as 2020. The needle for people barely aware of politics even as they vote stayed at the same place as it was in 2020: Things aren’t great, kick whoever is in office out in hopes the alternative does better. Last time they came out for Biden because Trump was at the wheel. Now they show up for Trump because the president was a democrat.
This segment of the electorate is not particularly politically aware, let alone active, and likely has little to no opinion about the broader world. The relative likelihood of them turning up at all depends on how badly things are going (less likely to show up this time compared to the unprecedented mess of 2020), and to the extent they show up they just vote against whoever is in charge that day.
However, those people are generally quiet, and so we turn our focus instead to the loudest folks proclaiming a refusal to vote for Harris.
If it was close, I would agree. It wasn’t even close by such a huge margin the more mundane factors I think are the only ones big enough to explain things.
What an insane take…
For the politically disengaged? It is an accurate take.
In 2020, you had massive unemployment. People personally were stuck at home with nowhere they could go. Many of them saw a loved one suffer death at the hands of a pandemic, or personally get very sick. That is a direct and visceral experience of “things are bad”. They didn’t need to follow any news, study any charts, read any policy, they knew that their direct subjective experience was bad.
In 2024, things for people are largely normal, but a lot of bills are high. Grading on a curve, this is much further from a personal crisis for most folks. In fact, the grocery bills eased a bit so some people might be seeing a natural ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
The biggest discused crisis factors in forums like this are only being considered by the politically engaged, and that’s just not most people. Whether it should be or not…
Its definitely a media outreach problem.
Yez, but not in the way you’re thinking. People have been radicalized by misogynists on youtube and tiktok that Russia has paid for. It’s been proven for some of them, and if you think they’re the only ones, you’re living in a fantasy land.
Except gen z men voted at like a 2% more for trump in a low turnout election its like well within every margin of error that it could be decreasing support since 2020.
The significant portion of the almost 20 million Biden voters that just checked out of politics and decided since everything seemed ok, no need to vote. Thats the media outreach problem. It guarantees that republicans will regain power everytime the economy gets patched up with duct tape.
Unfortunately, I think the media has blared the things people should be caring like crazy. Problems remain:
I think that points to the democrats need for sneaker based messaging networks. Instead of buying huge expensive ads that nonvoters won’t watch and giving that money out to tv networks why not use the high volunteer base to buy t shirts and restaurant meal coupons then hand them out to people. stuff like that. I think there needs to be more lateral thinking here. Less emails, more tshirts.
This is largely how non voters have responded when asked as far as I’ve seen: “feels like things aren’t broken, I can sit this out”
Its not a take its just the reality we live in.
Every person that says that is now a Nazi sympathizer.
I agree with you in spirit but not in rhetoric. I’d call them dipshits.
It doesn’t matter. A vote that was not cast or cast for anyone other than Harris we warned them and warned them, and they didn’t listen.
If I ever hear someone say “Gen Z will save us” again, I’m going to have some strong words for them. Gen Z is a bunch of knuckle-dragging Neanderthals and they’ll be the death of us.