Well this article’s a pro-Putin load of shit. The reason cluster munitions are banned under so many treaties is that they tend to fail to detonate and then kill civilians after the war, requiring a long and horrible cleanup process. But Russia has already been using cluster munitions in huge quantities, so that cleanup process already needs to happen, and this article is handwringing over Ukraine being able to use them on Ukrainian territory in response. And if Ukraine loses this war, Russia has already made it perfectly clear through their actions in occupied territory that the result will be genocide - something the article curiously decides to omit, while quite happily pushing a false equivalence between Russia’s use (pre-emptive, offensive, and murdering civilians of the country they’re invading) and Ukraine’s use (in response, defensive, and accepting some deaths to stop Russia from killing more).
The reason cluster munitions are banned under so many treaties is that they tend to fail to detonate and then kill civilians after the war, requiring a long and horrible cleanup process. But Russia has already been using cluster munitions in huge quantities, so that cleanup process already needs to happen, and this article is handwringing over Ukraine being able to use them on Ukrainian territory in response.
i noted this downthread but: just because you’re the good guy doesn’t mean everything you do is a good thing. there is a reason so many countries consider cluster munitions criminal, and that’s because there’s no circumstance in which the use of cluster munitions is a good thing—“they’ve already been used so there’s no downside to using them more” is torturous logic in more ways than one. cumulative usage will obviously make it cumulatively more likely bombs will harm people long after the war ends.
separately: i think it’d behoove us all to not fall into this trap of pretending that Ukraine is completely morally unimpeachable in what it chooses to do militarily just because it’s fighting on its own soil. you don’t want to go down that route. if you do that you will—inevitably, because wars aren’t pretty—find yourself justifying Ukrainian war crimes one of these days, and you will look like a monster for doing that.
I don’t think anything I said implied that Ukraine was morally unimpeachable on the military side. If we were talking about whether or not Ukraine should be able to torture Russian POWs or impersonate medics or firebomb Russian apartment complexes then this would be a very different conversation and I would be saying very different things. I also don’t think anyone is saying that use of cluster munitions is a good thing, only that it’s the lesser of all available evils.
I do think that under all circumstances it’s very unhelpful and even paternalistic for us to tell Ukraine what they can and can’t do for their own good. Ukraine is not fighting the Iraq war or Vietnam here. They’re not lunatics, they’re not children, and they’re not fighting because they’ve been lied or manipulated or bullied into it by their leadership. They’re fighting a defensive war of annihiliation in which they either win or die, much of the civilian population included. Given that, they are the only ones who should be allowed a say on what risks they are prepared to take and what costs they consider acceptable, and our role in this should be to shut up and help them unless they are genuinely violating international law. There might one day come a time where the Ukrainian people start disagreeing with the Ukrainian leadership on how far to go, and if that ever happens then I’m happy to weigh in on the side of the people, but we’re not there yet - last I heard Zelenskiy was still incredibly popular.
I also didn’t say there was “no downside” to using cluster munitions more. I would instead say that most of the downside is already there thanks to Russia’s extensive use of them. Obviously the more bombs are present the more likely it is that someone is killed, but AFAICT the deaths are not the worst part of unexploded munitions because they are typically rare. The problem is that the reason deaths are rare is that the instant the immediate threat is over, the government has to designate huge swathes of the country as de facto minefields, unsafe for everyone including the people who used to live there until they can be painstakingly cleared. Even afterwards, the risk is never entirely gone and the population has to live with that - people don’t feel safe walking in the countryside they grew up in for decades after the fact. That, to me, would be the worst part, and past a certain point increasing the number of munitions used in a given engagement makes very little difference to it.
They’re fighting a defensive war of annihiliation in which they either win or die, much of the civilian population included. Given that, they are the only ones who should be allowed a say on what risks they are prepared to take and what costs they consider acceptable, and our role in this should be to shut up and help them unless they are genuinely violating international law.
if this is our line then: even people in this very thread are freely admitting that most uses of cluster munitions are war crimes or disproportionately harm civilians (which can be said to violate international law). there is an entire international treaty revolving around the prohibition of cluster munitions and their manufacture which more than half of the world is a signatory to. most countries don’t have cluster munitions and even fewer manufacture them. the case that these aren’t a violation of international law would rest pretty heavily on the obstinance of a handful of countries who disproportionately use them—Russia being one of them, and the U.S. being another.
Cluster bombs are highly effective at what they’re using them for. And the alternative is mines. Neither is exactly civilian friendly, but at least this way the failure rates are lower and the bombs you’re leaving behind are actually being targeted at something instead of buried and forgotten.
Neither is exactly civilian friendly, but at least this way the failure rates are lower and the bombs you’re leaving behind are actually being targeted at something instead of buried and forgotten.
i just question the accuracy of either of these assertions (failure rates of up to 30% are well publicized, and Russian cluster munitions in Ukraine have had an even higher rate than that)—and even if you accept they’re being targeted at something, how useful is that actually as a justification when the whole point of cluster munitions is sheer number and not accuracy?
Fortunately, the article states that the munitions have a dud rate of 2.35%, rather than 30%.
that is a claim by the Pentagon, which is so categorically untrustworthy on matters such as these that it really is not worth taking seriously. their actually-backed-by-data estimate on the same munitions is a 14% dud rate (and there are reasons to believe the rate is higher than that) and that quite literally follows the section you are excerpting from.
The editorial board cites the fact that the cluster munitions being sent by the US have a “very low dud rate,” and will therefore pose less of a risk to civilians. The Pentagon claims that the munitions it is sending have a dud rate of 2.35%; even if that’s accurate, it exceeds the 1% limit the Pentagon itself considers acceptable.
According to the New York Times’ John Ismay (7/7/23), a failure rate of 2.35% “would mean that for every two shells fired, about three unexploded grenades would be left scattered on the target area.” There is reason to believe that the true dud rate may be much higher—possibly exceeding 14%, by the Pentagon’s own reckoning.
The US-provided cluster bombs have something like a 3% failure rate.
this is demonstrably false: as i noted in another comment and even in ideal circumstances, the Pentagon’s data—rather than its words and idle wishes—suggest a failure rate of at least 14%.
What’s your source for either of your claims?
The Pentagon said the weapons they would send to Ukraine had a failure rate of 2.35 percent or less, far better than the usual rate that is common for cluster weapons.
But the Pentagon’s own statements indicate that the cluster munitions in question contain older grenades known to have a failure rate of 14 percent or more.
here is the original document they are quoting from. page 31/32 (35/36 in the .pdf’s numbering) states that:
U.S. ammunition stockpile sample testing also indicated that DOD has experienced past problems with submunition reliability rates. For example, in 1990, testing of artillery-delivered nonland-mine submunitions identified two lots that had duds in excess of 40 percent. According to a testing document, one way to compensate for this high dud rate is to increase the quantity fired. Instructions contained in the testing document were to “Notify the user of the increase in submissile defect rate so that he can make adjustments in the tactical employment plans.” The July 2000 Army study of dud rates for ammunition reports that the dud rate for artillery-fired M42/46 submunitions is over 14 percent.
the Pentagon’s actual, data based estimate (and not its uh, lying) correspond well to other data reported by groups such as Human Rights Watch (which have routinely found submunitions to have rates like that across the board), and specialists in the field who anecdotally report rates of as high as 30%.
the Pentagon’s actual, data based estimate (and not its uh, lying)
The Pentagon’s five actual, data-based and more recent estimates, which indicate a much lower rate, are classified. Otherwise I take your point, seems you’re essentially right about the failure rate.
I suspect the failure rate is higher than what the Pentagon is saying, probably ranging from 2-25% depending on conditions. At least it’s much safer than the cluster munitions the Kremlin is using.
The Pentagon’s five actual, data-based and more recent estimates, which indicate a much lower rate, are classified.
oh, fascinating. i’m sure there’s a banal reason why the Pentagon totally can’t release these supposed much lower rates and has to classify them—but we definitely have lower rates of duds now, believe us this time! the Pentagon would never do things like selectively classify or release data to manipulate narratives, misrepresent how dangerous things are or the severity of certain weapons or political trespasses, or generally and systemically lie about everything. that’s why, for example, whenever we audit where our money is going and to what things, they fail said audit. i’m definitely going to take their classified word for it here instead of all the actual data (including some of their own previous data) which strongly implies they are lying as they usually do.
Easy. A single artillery shell will likely miss, meaning you need to use more of them. Cluster munitions hit a wide area, and therefore you need to use less of them. It’s like using a shotgun vs a rifle. I’d highly recommend this video for more information.
Cluster munitions hit a wide area, and therefore you need to use less of them.
i don’t see what this really has to do with my point—and i’d also question that the history of cluster munitions shows restraint in their usage on the specific bases that they have a better theoretical spread of fire and efficiency than normal shelling. in general, when they’re used they’re used to excess and without much regard for what you’re talking about here because that’s just kind of what happens when you give people a new weapon. that’s part of why they’re so devastating to civilian populations even well after wars have ended
The big difference here is Ukraine is bombing their own territory. Ukraine is not going to use these indiscriminately, they’re not going to target civilian areas (like Russia already has). They have an invested interest in using them carefully and cleaning up the mess ASAP as soon as the war is over.
They have an invested interest in using them carefully and cleaning up the mess ASAP as soon as the war is over.
you’re free to take their word for this but every state fighting a war says that they’re going to use weapons responsibly. how many of them actually do so, or don’t commit war crimes in doing so? the US military, literally the most well funded and powerful combat force in the world (and a force which has not fought for its survival in a long time), still routinely kills civilians in circumstances where that’s avoidable. the idea that Ukraine will be “careful” in its usage of cluster bombs and not misuse them is hopium at best—particularly given the circumstances it’s in. and even if they want to be, again, the point of a cluster bomb is that it’s not a careful munition!
i also don’t think “the bad guys are doing this” is justification for also doing a bad thing that is widely recognized as a crime.
Ukraine has thought about this. They are bombing there own territory. They know this will leave unexploded ordinance. The know the more they use them, the more risk it is to their own citizens. They know if they use them in civilian centers they risk killing their own citizens. They’re not stupid, please don’t pretend like they are.
i also don’t think “the bad guys are doing this” is justification for also doing a bad thing that is widely recognized as a crime.
They’re fighting for survival, that’s plenty justification. They were invaded, Russia kidnapped their children and disappeared them. War sucks, people, including civilians, die. The longer this war goes on, the more people will die. The longer this war goes on, the more unexploded ordinance, conventional or cluster, will be left.
I’m sorry I just don’t understand your perspective. It seems like you believe that Ukraine would use these without caution within their borders because other aggressor nations have used them without cation outside their borders. That they will not put any effort into cleanup of their borders at the end of the war because other aggressor nations didn’t cleanup outside their borders at the end of a war.
It seems like you think they’re going to bomb their own cities and just leave them to be stumbled upon later. There will be a massive cleanup effort after the war is done, it will go on for years, or likely decades. Cluster munitions will help end the war sooner, that’s just an objective fact. Yeah, they suck, so do conventional bombs, so do mines, so does war in general.
Ukraine has thought about this. They are bombing there own territory. They know this will leave unexploded ordinance. The know the more they use them, the more risk it is to their own citizens. They know if they use them in civilian centers they risk killing their own citizens. They’re not stupid, please don’t pretend like they are.
Ukraine’s judgement isn’t infallible or above criticism and it is possible for them to be wrong. the idea that the whole country is being infantilized or called stupid in being told not to commit war crimes or use what are widely recognized as criminal munitions is just silly.
They’re fighting for survival, that’s plenty justification. They were invaded, Russia kidnapped their children and disappeared them. War sucks, people, including civilians, die. The longer this war goes on, the more people will die. The longer this war goes on, the more unexploded ordinance, conventional or cluster, will be left.
this is an argument for unrestricted war crimes—because those would make the war end quicker—and i hope you understand that. “survival” does not mean “a get out of jail free card to do whatever you want, even if it’s against international law or widely seen as illegal.”
this is sort of what i mean here, by the way. you are the sort of person who is going to, if Ukraine starts executing Russian soldiers or taking retributive action against citizens of Ukraine who support Russia for whatever reason, be the first in line to defend that on these frankly horrifying grounds.
I think Ukraine, specifically, has a huge incentive to show as much restraint in their use as possible here. If you have evidence that defending militaries using cluster munitions typically fail to do so, then I’d be interested to see that.
If you have evidence that defending militaries using cluster munitions typically fail to do so, then I’d be interested to see that.
ironically the best recent example of this is Ukraine (most sovereign states being invaded at this stage of history don’t have or aren’t known to have cluster munitions)—it is exceedingly likely that in the past 9 years Ukraine has used them without much restraint. Georgia also admitted to using them pretty freely when they were being invaded by Russia in 2008.
As far as I can tell from a quick skim, that article is about firing cluster munitions into populated areas. I think we can both agree that this is a war crime and the people responsible should be in prison. I don’t think it would have been any less of a war crime if either Ukraine or Russia had been firing conventional munitions into populated areas, though. I also don’t think it has much bearing on Ukraine’s likely actions in this war, since it’s a conventional war rather than an insurgency with most fighting taking place inside major cities - even ignoring basic decency, there is simply no reason for them to brutalise their own population that way. I was more interested in evidence of a defensive use of cluster munitions which hadn’t been properly cleaned up, which was the direction of the conversation to that point.
