Humans may survive for a long time. Societies will crumble, that’s the norm, and it will happen fast now.
I think that our current civilization (western hegemony) will start to crumble by around 2030 when the western countries can’t keep up their wealth and their cohesion and cooperation due to effects of climate catastrophe, depleted resources, destroyed biospheres and (in my eyes more impacting that the other factors) dwindling demographics - in concrete terms: Police, fire fighters, ambulances will not show up any longer for parts of the cities and counties due to understaffing, and that will escalate social distortions.
After that dictators will become the norm (they are on the rise already), and due to the notoriously incapable and destructive tendencies of such regimes wars will eat up the rest of the humanity and the collaboration we need to function on higher levels (states, continents, worldwide). My estimation is that this point will be reached by around 2100.
After that the game is open. My guess is that humankind in the long run will return to some kind of self sustaining agraric communities with skilled guilds likewise late middle ages plus some added comfort and medicine (a lot of our current knowledge is completely useless without a global network for resources but stuff like hygiene, electricity, mechanics etc. on a small scale may survive).
Wild guesses, I know. Please keep in mind that I stated “will start to crumble by around 2030” - that date is a very soft point which will not come with one single big bang but with a lot of “small” incidents.
Programmes have been initiated to improve the amount of organic matter in soil, “by adopting practices such as using cover crops, crop rotation and agroforestry”, said FAO
Where I grew up, we rotated corn and soybeans. As far as I know that’s still happening. It’s about nitrogen fixing.
So I suppose the topsoil of my hometown could be at risk, if the farmers there stopped doing their soil management practices.
However that’s a pretty misleading way to put it. That’s like saying all car passengers are at risk of dying in head-on collisions (if the current practice of using steering and brakes is abandoned).
So yeah, it looks like topsoil is at risk if we stop doing what we currently do to manage it. Technically true, but extremely misleading.
Without being able to grow food or have easy access to fresh water, 2050 and beyond is going to be pretty bleak.
Perhaps my reading skills are sub-par, but let’s just start with a basic question: do you deny that the meaning of your sentence I’ve quoted includes the claim that “We will be unable to grow food in 2050”?
Humans may survive for a long time. Societies will crumble, that’s the norm, and it will happen fast now.
I think that our current civilization (western hegemony) will start to crumble by around 2030 when the western countries can’t keep up their wealth and their cohesion and cooperation due to effects of climate catastrophe, depleted resources, destroyed biospheres and (in my eyes more impacting that the other factors) dwindling demographics - in concrete terms: Police, fire fighters, ambulances will not show up any longer for parts of the cities and counties due to understaffing, and that will escalate social distortions.
After that dictators will become the norm (they are on the rise already), and due to the notoriously incapable and destructive tendencies of such regimes wars will eat up the rest of the humanity and the collaboration we need to function on higher levels (states, continents, worldwide). My estimation is that this point will be reached by around 2100.
After that the game is open. My guess is that humankind in the long run will return to some kind of self sustaining agraric communities with skilled guilds likewise late middle ages plus some added comfort and medicine (a lot of our current knowledge is completely useless without a global network for resources but stuff like hygiene, electricity, mechanics etc. on a small scale may survive).
Wild guesses, I know. Please keep in mind that I stated “will start to crumble by around 2030” - that date is a very soft point which will not come with one single big bang but with a lot of “small” incidents.
We are already seeing the start of it.
Some fun links from the World Economic Forum and United Nations:
Global freshwater demand will exceed supply 40% by 2030 and 90% of global top soil and arable land is at risk of depletion by 2050.
Without being able to grow food or have easy access to fresh water, 2050 and beyond is going to be pretty bleak.
Enjoy the last of the abundance while you can, everything will end soon.
So the claim is we won’t be able to grow food in 2050?
Why not? What is it about the altered climate that will prevent food from growing?
I’m not qualified to teach you how to read.
From your link:
Where I grew up, we rotated corn and soybeans. As far as I know that’s still happening. It’s about nitrogen fixing.
So I suppose the topsoil of my hometown could be at risk, if the farmers there stopped doing their soil management practices.
However that’s a pretty misleading way to put it. That’s like saying all car passengers are at risk of dying in head-on collisions (if the current practice of using steering and brakes is abandoned).
So yeah, it looks like topsoil is at risk if we stop doing what we currently do to manage it. Technically true, but extremely misleading.
Also, this is what I was responding to:
Perhaps my reading skills are sub-par, but let’s just start with a basic question: do you deny that the meaning of your sentence I’ve quoted includes the claim that “We will be unable to grow food in 2050”?
I think the west is already crumbling, no need to wait until 2030. It will still take decades, but its already happening.
Impressive.