The shape-shifting conflict in the Middle East saw Iran openly go on the offensive for the first time since the war in Gaza began, as Tehran’s latest round of existential brinkmanship with Israel spread further from the tiny Mediterranean enclave.

The show of force broke with the stealth that’s come to define Iran’s role in the conflict so far, after allies like the Houthis in Yemen and Lebanon’s Hezbollah led the military campaign in support of Gaza. It was a message from an emboldened Iran that relegated its proxies to the sidelines, signaling an appetite to replace an unstable status quo by taking the fight where it saw fit.

New flashpoints lit up almost daily. First Iran seized an oil tanker off the coast of Oman in what it said was a retaliation for the US’s “theft” of its crude from the same ship last year.

Then it launched missile strikes on an alleged Israeli spy base in northern Iraq and ISIS in Syria, signaling that Tehran was willing to use force to push back what it saw as Israeli influence, and creating an opportunity to show off new high-tech missiles that could in theory reach Tel Aviv. 

Next came a further strike — this time on Pakistan to the east — targeting another militant group that Tehran says organizes attacks from the porous border region. Though Pakistan launched reciprocal strikes the following day, both sides moved quickly to de-escalate by affirming their “brotherly” relations.

A day later, Iran announced air and naval drills around the Persian Gulf coast, saying they will “create deterrence” around sensitive facilities like refineries, ports and nuclear power plants.

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