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Cake day: November 10th, 2025

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  • As a background: Africa has traditionally been facing a growing trade deficit. In 2025, Chinese exports to Africa amounted to USD 225 billion, an increase of 25.8% year-on-year. This compares to USD 123 billion in imports from Africa, which grew by just 5.4% year-on year.

    We must also note that Africa’s least developed countries have already been enjoying zero-tariff access to China since 2005. Research suggests, however, that benefits for Africa were very limited. For example, economist Adam Minson (opens pdf) published a paper in 2008 that found the tariff-free arrangements of 2005 would bring some countries as little as an additional US$100,000 annually, commenting,

    About half of the beneficiaries may see an implicit transfer of less than $100,000 per year. Barring an unexpectedly strong supply response in Africa, the preferences will not alter trade flows to China much, and certainly will not reduce the bilateral trade deficits run by those of Africa’s economies that do not export oil.




  • Chinese cooperation and ‘zero’ tariffs come at a price?

    MOFA blasts China over exclusion from Kenya ocean conference

    The [Taiwanese] Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) today condemned China for pressuring Kenya to block Taiwan from participating in the Our Ocean Conference, accusing Beijing of political interference and urging it to stop undermining global ocean cooperation.

    Kenya is hosting the 11th Our Ocean Conference from today through Thursday in Mombasa.

    At the invitation of the Kenyan government, Taiwanese academics traveled to Mombasa on Sunday to attend a preconference academic exchange and present research, the ministry said in a statement. When the academics arrived at the venue, organizers refused to issue entry badges on the grounds that Taiwanese passports are not recognized, the ministry said …

    The incident shows China’s “heavy-handed and overbearing diplomacy” and how it places political considerations above professional cooperation on ocean sustainability, the ministry said.




  • Some additional information according to the Kyiv Post:

    Located just 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the Kremlin, the Moscow Oil Refinery (MNPZ), owned by Gazprom Neft, supplies up to 40% of Moscow’s fuel market and around 70% of gasoline consumed in Moscow and the surrounding region … According to Exilenova+’s OSINT analysis, the refinery’s AVT-6 ELOU unit – described as the heart of the facility – was burning.

    More than 25 Russian regions are reportedly experiencing fuel shortages, with gasoline sales restrictions appearing even in major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg … Regional emergency officials [in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai ] said more than 500 gas stations are currently out of fuel, forcing many operators to purchase small wholesale volumes without long-term supply contracts. Russian media also reported shortages at major gas station chains due to a sharp spike in demand.

    The report says that the Russian government is attempting to ease the crisis through subsidies and regulatory concessions to oil companies. In April and May alone, oil firms received about 700 billion rubles ($9 billion) in state subsidies. In June, authorities also allowed lower-quality Euro-3 gasoline to be sold instead of Euro-5. But it doesn’t appear to help, according to the report citing The Moscow Times with reference to Energy experts:

    “This does not solve the main problem – the Ukrainian drone strikes. As a result, in the first week of June, oil refining volumes in Russia fell below 4 million barrels per day, the lowest in 21 years."





  • It’s not so a surprise, as what is going on has been happening for a while now with Chinese bond yields being historically low for some time now.

    As the Financial Times writes:

    Every slice of China’s bond market has now succumbed to Japanisation - (Archived)

    Back in November 2024, China’s 30-year bond yield fell below Japan’s for the first time in history … A year later, China’s 10-year yield also fell victim to Japanisation … That was “a historic crossover that may reignite fears the world’s No. 2 economy is sliding into the deflationary spiral that paralysed its neighbour in the 1990s” according to Bloomberg at the time … Then, in March, two-year yields did the same. And last week, even China’s 12-month bill yield briefly moved below Japan’s … There’s no secret to what is going on here. Japan’s economy has finally emerged from deflation.

    … Meanwhile, China’s economy is sluggish, Chinese real estate continues to struggle, the debt overhang is monstrous, and the country’s demographics are bad. Plus, some investors think Chinese bonds are an attractive, safe diversifier for portfolios, weighing further on yields.


  • As an addition:

    Muted dissatisfaction: Russians are increasingly critical of the government’s economic policy

    … Survey results [by Nest Centre] show that Russians are generally dissatisfied with the state of the economy and the government’s economic policy. At the same time, this dissatisfaction is not giving rise to protest. Moderately negative views predominate, while the share of strongly negative assessments remains limited. Overall, public perceptions of the economy are comparable to those observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the period of the 2018 pension reform.

    … The most favourable assessments of the state of the economy came from respondents aged 18–24 (positive-to-negative ratio of 82:18), residents of Moscow (67:33), higher-income respondents (74:26), and consumers of traditional media (television, radio, and newspapers). The least favourable assessments came from respondents with a low standard of living (34:66), those aged 45–65 (55:45), and viewers of YouTube channels (33:67).

    All in all, surveys did not reveal strong criticism of the government’s economic priorities among Russians. However, as the Nest Centre says,

    These assessments stand in marked contrast to respondents’ evaluations of the government’s actual performance. When asked, ‘Do you think the Russian government’s economic policies create more problems, or do they bring substantial positive results?’, respondents gave considerably more negative assessments.

    Among those willing to provide an opinion (81 per cent of respondents), 40 per cent chose the answer that ‘the government’s economic policies create more problems, with few positive results’. A further 41 per cent selected the moderately negative option that they ‘create some problems, which will be offset by positive changes in the future’. Only 19 per cent believed that the government’s policies ‘bring substantial positive results, with only a few problems’.

    … When the discussion shifts to the impact of government policies on respondents’ personal circumstances, the share of those unable to provide an answer falls to just 5 per cent, while assessments of the government become noticeably more critical. The ratio of respondents who believe that the government ‘creates new problems [for them and their families]’ to those who believe that the authorities ‘help to solve economic problems’ is 7:3.

    The report concludes:

    It can be stated with a high degree of confidence that the Russian economy has not yet reached the lowest point of its current trajectory. At present, there are no signs of an economic recovery. The situation is likely to deteriorate gradually; economic difficulties will become increasingly noticeable to the population, and this will probably be reflected in public opinion.



















  • Clear words by a former Tiananmen protester:

    Tiananmen dissident lambasts China on massacre anniversary

    On the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, Wu’er Kaixi, who played a leading role during the 1989 protests, spoke about his personal loss and nearly four decades in exile …

    “China was allowed to join the World Trade Organization and the global trade system because it was hoped that this would lead to a civil society that would eventually give birth to democracy,” he said … “Japan, the US and every other country seem to have misunderstood China,” he told DW. “They think China is led by ideology, by nationalism or communism, but that’s wrong. The Chinese Communist Party is a criminal group that is driven by profit” …

    And while the Chinese leaders “talk about rejuvenation” and how taking control of Taiwan will benefit the nation — and a public fed on propaganda is roused to the party’s aims — the reality is quite different, Kaixi said. "They do not care about rejuvenating China; all they care about is adding another zero to their bank balances,” he said. “They are nothing but common thieves” …

    The crackdown, when it came on the night of June 3–4, 1989, was sudden, with thousands of troops storming Tiananmen Square with tanks and armored personnel carriers, firing live rounds. China has never provided a full death toll, but rights groups and witnesses say the figure could run into thousands …





  • These are always the same false and misleading narratives spread by propagandists.

    It’s not the same. China’s support for its companies goes far beyond subsidies, and so does its protectionism of domestic markets, the country’s mercantilism used to create dependence especially of countries in the Global South that form the basis for political and economic coercion.

    No European company could even remotely do what Chinese companies do in Europe. Chinese companies and platforms have even sold poisonous products in Europe, just to provide an example; any European company that sells such products would immediately shut down by the authorities.

    But there are many admin and mods here who continue to spread pro-China, pro-Russian propaganda.